Q4 Highlights
A catalog of recent climate news that caught my eye
This last newsletter of 2024 comes late due to a general sprint of travel. Hope it makes for some solid plane reading.
Defeat and a new fight - The key news of this quarter that America’s election results and the continual failure of the COP process and other global talks to have any particularly meaningful outcomes (Plastics treaty failed, UNCCD failed, COP29 failed, COP16 failed, few national biodiversity strategies were submitted, and Drilled’s great reporting on how COPs have been poisoned parts 1, 2, 3) have fundamentally sounded a death knell for the two high level global goals: 1.5°C (Axios) and 30x30 (At least for the US: Superorganism). I know most had called it earlier but I was holding out hope. Barring an immediate about-face to wartime mobilization of the economy and society with dramatic innovation, both of these goals are out of reach, meaning we have chosen a future with mass climate migration, water scarcity, tipping point roulette, few if any corals, … an unrecognizable future (Axios on the unexpected prevalence of hothouse regions; old WRI piece on what conservative models predict re: heatwaves; WaPo on timing, not technology, being the challenge; Nature on the increasing inequality caused by climate change; Guardian on the rise of dengue; PNAS on the rise of malaria; The Conversation on pilgrimage deaths; Nature on animal migration paths changing; TED on foods we might lose; NYTimes on the decline of Koshihikari rice; FT on NOAA potentially needing to rebuild their models, etc.)
This doesn’t mean the fight is over because every little bit of avoided warming counts, and it certainly doesn’t mean a better future of a more just and regenerative society is impossible, but it does mean that that future will not be with this world that we grew up with. The fight is now about fighting for what we can save. If you haven’t already, please start thinking about all the tools you have in your arsenal***.
Given the volume of important and interesting news the past ~3 months, I’ve starred exceptionally strong reads (***) and some articles that are really worth your time clicking into (*) both below and above. Otherwise, as always, explore what catches your eye.
Some good news
Seven quiet breakthroughs for climate and nature in 2024 you might have missed (BBC)
Montana Supreme Court affirms decision in historic youth climate case (Stateline) - Mostly symbolic at the moment but maybe the start of something massive.
Powering Up the Global South (RMI) - Some great stats on the Global South’s adoption of renewables, even with financing hurdles.
The energy transition will be much cheaper than you think (Economist) - Still too conservative but nice to see the Economist publishing something closer to the truth!
Biden-Harris Administration Takes Major Steps to Accelerate Clean Energy Geothermal Development on Public Lands (DOI) - If this performs as expected, a great option for baseload power.
Fast, scalable, clean, and cheap enough: How off-grid solar microgrids can power the AI race (Off Grid AI)
North Carolina’s Coming Run on Electric Cars (Atlantic) - The power of decentralization and modularity (and a reminder that EVs are just batteries on wheels, much like how the sun is free heating). Utilities also know it works, just haven’t fully explored how much.
Climate TRACE data reveal high-impact opportunities for cutting greenhouse gas emissions (ClimateTRACE) - The power of data! Reveals a lot of bad actors…
Paris to Replace Parking Spaces With Trees (Bloomberg) - Paris rapidly moving up my favorite cities list :D
Biden Requires Lead Drinking-Water Pipes to be Replaced Nationwide (NYTimes)
Canada Launches Regulation Requiring 35% Emissions Reduction from Oil & Gas Companies (ESG Today)
EU Commission Greenlights €700M Dutch Scheme for Livestock Producers to Voluntarily Close Their Farms (EU) - Not sure if it will be effective but love to see policy trying to pull new and interesting levers.
US approves first-ever tribal marine sanctuary: ‘Our community’s hard work has come to fruition’ (Guardian)
Complexity
***Genevieve Guenther on the Language of Climate Politics Podcast (Drilled) - Important for identifying BS signals, a lot is codified here that I’ve been struggling to personally identify.
***The Climate-Driven Diaspora Is Here (Wired)
***Water (The Crucible Years) - Helluva read from Bill McKibben after Helene from top to bottom.
What Helene could signal about the rest of hurricane season, and beyond (WaPo) - The world is becoming more and more unpredictable.
You will not escape the climate crisis (Climate Brink) - One particular anecdote stood out to me:
“Here's something scary,” says one veteran of the sector. “If you flew over the two mines in Spruce Pine with a crop duster loaded with a very particular powder, you could end the world's production of semiconductors and solar panels within six months.” No high-purity quartz means no Czochralski crucibles, which means no monocrystalline silicon wafers, which means, well, the end of computer chip manufacture as we know it. We would adapt; find a new process or an alternative substance. But it would be a grisly few years.”
Hurricane Helene reveals feds' climate risk exposure (Axios) && Utilities Are Planning for the Wrong Kind of Hurricane (Heatmap) - Highlights the risk of centralization and the need for improved resilience.
*Hurricanes Have a Longer, Deadlier Tail Than Anyone Thought (Heatmap) - Damage is never just the immediate aftermath.
Climate Change Is Killing Buildings in Slow Motion (Bloomberg) - Tl;dr: the materials we used to build most things are no longer appropriate for the climate they are now in.
*Fossil Fuels Fund Academia. Now What? (Drilled) - Great read to pair with their podcast episode “Denial to Delay: How Fossil-Funded University Research Lays the Foundation for Fossil-Friendly Policy”
Unrest in Carbon Country (Drilled) - Brilliant journalism on the intersecting politics surrounding carbon pipelines in Iowa.
Starbucks Buys Research Farms as Climate Change Threatens Coffee Supply (Bloomberg) - After decades of separating themselves from their supply chains to avoid accountability for the sake of the lowest prices, we’re now seeing a rush to try to secure and strengthen supply chains.
Conspiracies Thrive in a Crisis (Drilled) - What a Q4 for Drilled, another great piece exploring the weird intersection between conspiracy theories and crises.
The profit-obsessed monster destroying American emergency rooms (Vox) - A bit too finger-pointy and sensational but it’s such a clear parallel to what’s happening to so many important climate sectors where hyper-commercialization is valuing actual results and progress as irrelevant externalities. And it might not even be the company’s fault, especially when there’s no monetary consequences for bad outcomes nor incentives for good ones. The concept behind treating the whole patient and not just the disease is, in essence, the exact same as fixing the systems and not just the sources of pollution.
Finance & Data
Ortec Finance warns of the impact of climate change on pension fund returns worldwide (Ortec) - “North American pension fund returns could decline up to 50%* by 2040 under a high warming scenario” And this is a relatively conservative warming scenario…
*Marshall Plans (Phenomenal World) - Interesting compare-and-contrast between the US and China’s current and potential green industrial diplomacy plans (that the US will likely hemorrhage under the Trump administration).
*How to Buy a Piece of a Lawsuit and Impoverish a Country (Inside Climate News)
The Harsh Reality of ‘Hurricane Insurance’ (Bloomberg)
New data shows just how bad the climate insurance crisis has become (Grist)
*The Risky Business of Predicting Where Climate Disaster Will Hit (Bloomberg) && Should You Trust Zillow’s Climate Risk Data? (Heatmap) - Interpreting metrics without transparent methodologies or standard evaluations is neigh impossible.
We Study Climate Change. We Can’t Explain What We’re Seeing. (NYTimes)
Flooding risk will affect 1 in 4 English properties by mid-century, says report (FT)
Federal Flood Maps Are No Match for Florida’s Double Hurricane (Bloomberg)
This Year’s Hottest App Is a Wildfire Tracker (Bloomberg) - Some of the best data still isn’t machine-readable.
Bad Climate Socialism (How Things Work) - An interesting hypothesis on how the upcoming American insurance crisis will unfold. A related read: FEMA Forces Storm-Wrecked Homeowners to Choose: Build Up or Move Out? (Heatmap)
You’re Getting Screwed By Free Returns (Climate Town) - Free returns are expensive.
Water-is-wet news
*IPBES nexus report: Five takeaways for biodiversity, food, water, health and climate (Carbon Brief) - Focusing on one element of a system (e.g., food security) can have negative impacts on other elements of the system (e.g., biodiversity, water, health, climate) that ultimately then have negative impacts on the original element? Shocked, I tell you. But great to see it spelled out so clearly and backed with solid science.
How Washington State’s Climate Legacy Wound Up on the Ballot (Heatmap) - In case anyone was surprised, this bullshit was entirely bankrolled by one moronic multimillionaire, Bryan Heywood.
Biden administration releases LNG export study, urging caution on new permits (Reuters) - Glad to see a US administration clarify LNG as not a climate solution nor transition fuel.
The nation’s first commercial carbon sequestration plant is in Illinois. It leaks. (Grist) - A technology with little to no track record of work at scale isn’t working at scale? Shocker. (To continue to clarify the point here: nothing against testing, building, and iterating upon useful technologies. Just maybe we should make sure they work before pouring billions of public dollars behind them…)
The Climate Short: Hedge Funds Pile Up Huge Bets Against Green Future (Bloomberg) - *sigh*
Investing in Nature for Sustainability (Microsoft) - Listen to and build on top of science and lean into complexity √
‘Capitalism incarnate’: inside the secret world of McKinsey, the firm hooked on fossil fuels (Guardian) - Clickbait title but classic McKinsey.
Spiraling
Overconfidence in climate overshoot (Nature) - “Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.”
Living Planet Report: Global nature ‘dangerously close to irreversible tipping points’ (edie) - “The average size of monitored wildlife populations has declined 73% over the past 50 years (1970-2020)” and more than a third of tree species are now threatened with extinction.
A Broken Oil Pipeline Plunges South Sudan’s Capital Into Chaos (Bloomberg)
Mayotte authorities fear hunger, disease after cyclone; death toll rises in Mozambique (Reuters)
Nepal’s deadly floods trigger calls for climate adaptation (Mongabay) - “record floods killed at least 246 people, including 32 children… displaced more than 10,000 households… More than 40 bridges were either fully or partially destroyed. Nearly 100 schools were shut down and 95,000 hectares (235,000 acres) of farmland, an area roughly 10 times the size of Paris, was ruined.”
Floods destroy 1.1 million tons of rice in Bangladesh (Reuters)
Water Crises Threaten the World’s Ability to Eat, Studies Show (NYTimes)
Helene and Milton upended a key part of the nation’s agriculture system (Grist)
Mississippi River Dries Up Again at Worst Time for US Farmers (Bloomberg)
WMO report highlights growing shortfalls and stress in global water resources (WMO) - “2023 was driest year for global rivers in 33 years; glaciers suffer largest mass loss in 50 years”
Predictions of groundwater PFAS occurrence at drinking water supply depths in the United States (Science) - “The model highlights that about 80 million people in the conterminous US rely on groundwater with detectable amounts of PFAS”
More than half a trillion hours of work lost in 2023 due to ‘heat exposure’ (Carbon Brief)
Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics (Science) - 60% increase in carbon emissions over two decades.
Global coral bleaching event expands, now the largest on record (Reuters)
Arctic Report Card (NOAA) - The Artic tundra is now a carbon source.
Germany’s Forests Become Carbon Source After Years of Damage (Bloomberg)
Ukraine's vast forests devastated in hellscape of war (Reuters)
Climate change driven effects on transport, fate and biogeochemistry of trace element contaminants in coastal marine ecosystems (Nature) - We don’t have the data to understand how and how badly.